I think most of you have heard about the latest Roy Williams controversy. In case you have not, then see here and here for a general summary of what was said. Most people seem to be interesting in using it as an excuse to bash Roy, or point out the obvious fact that Roy and coverage do not go together (see the picture to the right for an example of what happens to opposing players when Roy blows coverage and is making a last ditch effort to avoid giving up the big play). If you want a good disucssion of these problems, Mickey Spagnola’s article sums things up pretty nicely. But, I’m not interesting in Roy bashing (check your usual message board for such comments). Instead, I’m more interested in looking at the effect on the team. What does Roy’s general decline mean for the team?
It is obviously a problem. Despite the fact that there are eleven people on the field at once, it just takes one person screwing up to mess up a team (remember Santana Moss's 2 play, 2 touchdowns in 2005, induced by the secondary)? You can’t really throw extra corners out there and hope that it somehow makes up for Roy. The pass rush can compensate, but even if it does so, at some point, Roy is going to have to cover someone. Also, if you bench him, who replaces him? Do you trust Pat Watkins or Courtney Brown to be the starter? It also doesn't help chemistry. Teammates aren't going to be happy if a starter is constantly hurting the defensive effort of the other 10 players on the field. They have to compensate for this, and even worse, have to deal with the millions of media questions about this.
So now that I have spent a paragraph restating the obvious, there are several things that can happen by the end of this year.
1) Roy gets better at coverage – I don’t see this happening, even though it probably would be the easiest solution. Maybe he will unregress and not become a coverage liability. Or maybe he will somehow learn to fit into the system. I don’t know, but I just don’t see it happening at this point in his career. Maybe Dave Campo can work some magic into him to the point where we do not have to cut him. Don't hold your breath.
2) Position change – we could move him to linebacker. He did play linebacker on the nickel defense last year. Of course, this assumes a) that he would be effective at stopping the run as a 3-4 linebacker, and b) he would be starting, because you aren’t paying “pro bowl safety” money to a backup linebacker. I somehow don’t see him being able to take on guards (as inside linebackers do in the 3-4) or supplanting Ware or Ellis/Spencer at OLB. So I see this less likely than the first option.
3) Trade him – I know Cowboys fans want to do this. In fact, if you read message boards, they are probably wondering if we can send him and Bobby Carpenter for Boldin, Roy Williams the WR, Chad Johnson, or any other fantasy trade that fans seem to make that disregard the salary cap implications and the fact that any GM not named Matt Millen would trade quality players for a guy who is getting $4-6 million safety who fears coverage. Don't see this happening either.
(And before you complain that I do not have the accurate number, it’s not the easiest thing to find. I searched all over the internet and even looked through Dallas’s media guide, which does not mention cap figures. Instead, it contains such priceless information, such as mentioning that Richie Cunningham was the NFC kicker of the year in 1997 (page 195), Ken Hamlin was in National Honor Society in high school (page 93), Jason Garrett is a resident of Dallas (page 15), and that former General Manager Tex Schramm helped create the quarterback ball spike to stop the clock (page 347). I saw in an article it was $4-6 million, but I’m not sure (blogging isn’t my day job). So correct me if I am wrong. The only website I could find gave Roy’s base salary for last year, but no incentives. It did also tell me that Bobby Carpenter made $5 million. No comment. But if anyone knows where the heck accurate salary info is, please comment below).
Anyways, I don’t see us trading him for anything higher than a mid-round draft pick, but then again Matt Millen is still inexplicitly employed, so you never know if he finds a “WR Roy Williams for SS Roy Williams” trade amusing enough to pull the trigger on.
4) Cut him – I think this is the most likely. We play him this year, see if he improves to the level of serviceable, and then cut him at the end of the year, when the salary hit is more palatable. It may not be the most ideal outcome, and there is no guarantee his replacement will not cause more problems. But the problems we currently have will probably force the team to make such a change.
5) Deal with it and keep him through his contract. – well, we can just keep him on the roster and deal with it. This is probably the one thing that fans don’t want to see. I don’t think this will happen, since the Cowboys will want to upgrade the position at some point for someone younger, cheaper, and possibly better. But you never know.
UPDATE: I found Roy's actual salary cap hit here
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